Qantas-Emirates tie-up is no surprise

THERE are several reasons why a Qantas-Emirates tie-up should not come as a surprise.

 

Foremost is the Australian flag carrier’s desperation to revive its loss-making international operations, which, it is expecting will plunge its full-year profit by as much as 90 per cent from US$552 million the previous year. So the airline is looking for opportunities to boost its earnings as it rationalizes its network operations and connections. Qantas has said that alliance deals have always been on the agenda, particularly when such arrangements not only open up new traffic channels but also reduce operating costs.

The Dubai-based Emirates Airlines, its home situated roughly midway on the kangaroo route, makes a veritable partner. Significantly, the airline is profitable and expanding. Besides, Emirates is a keen competitor for the same market. A tie-up would mean a more amicable intra rather than inter-airline competition.

It has also been speculated that Qantas as a consequence would reduce its operations to Europe – retaining only London as a destination and giving up Frankfurt – while it then feeds traffic to other European ports through Emirates. Qantas hopes to also gain access to a wider Middle-East market as well as making inroads into Africa through Emirates.

Not to be ignored is the fact that other Middle-East airlines such as Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways (also an airline of the UAE but based in Abu Dhabi) have also intensified the competition. Etihad has acquired a 10-per-cent stake in Virgin Australia.

But what is likely to unsettle Qantas more is the alliance between key rivals Singapore Airlines (SIA) and Virgin Australia. In the end, a Qantas-Emirates tie-up would look like a counter-move when adversaries join hands to take on a common enemy. There is not much of a choice left really, so to speak, for the self-professed “alliance specialist”.

Analysts who were quick to deduce that Qantas would also shift its operations from Singapore to Dubai have been mistaken. For many years now, Singapore has been Qantas’ major hub outside Australia, and from where it is able to feed transfer traffic to other Asian ports.

While it is convinced that its fortunes lie in the lucrative Asian market, it does not make sense for the flying kangaroo to skip Singapore or make a sizeable reduction in its operations there. After all, Singapore (Changi Airport) is the darling of transit passengers worldwide. An exit would shut Qantas out of growth opportunities – not just in Singapore but in the region – even as Qantas raises the profile of its low-cost Jetstar subsidiary and continues to pursue the dream of staging a separate Asia-based premium carrier.

Qantas chief Alan Joyce has said that Qantas would continue to develop large hub airports or en-route gateways in its network since these hubs, pulling in travellers from all over the world and sending them on to their final destinations, mean “extending our reach while restraining our costs.” However, he admitted: “We have a gap (in Asia), because our current schedule is predicated mainly on travellers transitting through Asia en route to Europe.”

While that might see some shift of such pure transit traffic from Singapore to Dubai, the former remains a premium hub for its infrastructure and connectivity – unless Mr Joyce becomes convinced that its family of hubs in partnerships with Japan Airlines (Narita), China Eastern Airlines and Cathay Pacific Airways (Hong Kong) and possibly Malaysia Airlines in 2013 (Kuala Lumpur) are adequately positioned even with the exclusion of Singapore.

It looks like with the impending incorporation of the Malaysian flag carrier as a new member of the OneWorld alliance, the two airlines may yet again revisit the proposal of a joint-venture regional carrier to be based most likely in Kuala Lumpur. Even then, it would be difficult imagining Qantas skipping Singapore altogether.

However, there have been mixed signals from both Qantas and Emirates on the rumoured alliance.

While admitting that his airline has met with Emirates, Mr Joyce clarified: “We only enter partnerships when we have the right arrangement for the long term. In the current economic environment, taking our time with this part of our agenda will clearly not undermine our broader transformation plan.”

On the other hand, Emirates chairman Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed al-Maktoum revealed that a code-sharing agreement would likely happen within six months but would not include any revenue-sharing arrangement.

Is that any indication of who is more likely to benefit from the tie-up? You can confidently make your wager, can’t you?

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About David Leo
David Leo has more than 30 years of aviation experience, having served in senior management in one of the world's best airlines and airports. He continues to maintain a keen interest in the business, writes freelance and provides consultancy services in the field.

2 Responses to Qantas-Emirates tie-up is no surprise

  1. Raynold Simons says:

    Emirates is quite a good flight to travel on only if you dont manage to have those full-of-attitude cabin crews. I usually travel Emirates when in the middle east and mostly have always bumped into cabin crews with attitude problems. For some reason they think they are all red-carpet celebrities and we are paparazzis.
    Besides the airline, the cargo division of emirates is also quite weird. Some aspects are good where as many are just plain out right stupid. When i called the call centre they would not give me full and proper information and would want to hang up after 3 minutes as a something called SQL would collapse. NO IDEA WHAT THAT IS! Then the staff made me talk to an officer/supervisor named Jertee and she was rude and asked me to call back becuase 3 minutes were over.

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