Enter the ultra-budget airline

Courtesy NewLeaf

Courtesy NewLeaf

LESS than a month after Canada’s latest carrier Airlines revealed plans to offer ultra-low fares operating from its base in Winnipeg to six cities within the country, namely Abbotsford, Halifax, Hamilton, Kelowna, Regina, and Saskatoon, it announced it was “temporarily postponing service” and would refund all transactions already made. The first service was to be launched in February.

Newleaf’s fate now rests in the hands of the Canadian Transportation Agency (CTA) which is reviewing the carrier’s aviation licence. Apparently Newleaf was selling seats through a charter arrangement with Kelowna-based Flair Airlines Ltd which held the CTA operating licence. The question is whether the indirect Newleaf should itself be holding a licence directly.

Newleaf CEO Jim Young’s reaction was one of optimism. He said: “We welcome a regulatory system in which businesses like ours can thrive in Canada as they do in other countries.”

That aside, the ultra-budget airline that is sometimes referred to as a discount airline is not an entirely new phenomenon. In his somewhat premature announcement of the launch of the airline, Young said: “Lower landing fees mean we have savings we can pass on to you.” The key word is “affordability”. According to him, “Ultra low-cost carriers are some of the most financially successful airlines in the world today.”

Young may be referring to operators such as Iceland’s WOW Air and the longer haul Norwegian Air Shuttle. WOW Air, for example, is offering US$99 fares connecting Boston and San Francisco in the US with the Icelandic capital Reykjavik. It is next looking at connecting with Montreal and Toronto in Canada.

While you might remind Young of how as many airlines so-called budget too have come and gone, Newleaf is already expressing interest to expand its operations to other destinations within Canada and in the United States.

Young, who was at one time CEO of Frontier Airlines, explained: “By unbundling the entire service you get to choose what you want.” That basically is the budget model, and one that is further trimmed down on costs. As an example, he cited how NewLeaf would be able to save money in part because it does not offer its seats on any third-party travel websites, which charge airlines a fee to post and make sales there. Considering the nature of its operations, that makes economic sense. After all, Young did not see Canada’s two other major carriers – Air Canada and Westjet – as Newleaf’s competitors. He said: “If I had a competitor, it would be the airlines that Canadians are driving across the border for.” He was referring to Canada’s loss of market share to US airlines such as Allegiant Air operating out of airports south of the border, close enough for Canadians to drive across to take advantage of the lower fares.

Young added: “We’re looking to create a new market and stimulate people who aren’t flying today. What I’m going after are people that will make the three-and-a-half hour drive in the middle of winter to go to Grand Forks because they’ve got to get to some place warm or can’t afford to fly from here.”

That argument about developing new market has been the slogan of many a budget upstart, and which has contributed to the success of some of them to go where the full service airlines would not go. Newleaf is therefore targeting a limited but niche leisure market on the back of a strategy that focuses on second-tier airports. It can count on that as a strength to drive its growth, particularly at a time when it could take advantage of the current low fuel costs. Too many no-frill operators in the past had been hit badly by soaring oil prices. The challenge for Newleaf will come when other upstarts similarly motivated jump into the same arena, or when one of the legacy airlines decide that the market has grown big enough for them to join the competition most probably through a subsidiary offshoot such as Rouge, the budget arm of Air Canada.

Legacy airlines across the world have become increasingly wary of the growth of the budget carriers, particularly after the 2008 global economic crisis when air travel trended downwards to cheaper fares. Budget carriers are now competing in the same market, not only for seats in the traditional economy class but also for travellers who want some perks but at lower fares as they introduce their version of business class. North American domestic operations by the major airlines are already adopting the budget model to charge for meals and baggage among a slew of chargeable.

The temptation of growing bigger than intended is always present. This unbridled ambition has led to the downfall of many operators in aviation history, perhaps the reason why the doyen of the budget model Ryanair remains undecided whether it should launch long haul services across the Atlantic, and why some discount carriers such as Allegiant have stayed small. Will Newleaf, when granted the licence to operate, given its ambition to expand far and wide, go down this same road?

Perhaps not, as it would appear that the current budget model exemplified by carriers such as Ryanair and easyJet is not trim enough, and if lower cost will stimulate demand, there is room for Newleaf to grow. Yet one begins to wonder how much lower you can go.

This article was first published in Aspire Aviation.

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About David Leo
David Leo has more than 30 years of aviation experience, having served in senior management in one of the world's best airlines and airports. He continues to maintain a keen interest in the business, writes freelance and provides consultancy services in the field.

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