As fuel prices go up, so will fares

IT looks like the good times are running out. Airlines, faced with rising fuel costs, are raising fares. Delta Air Lines for one is expecting its fuel costs for 2018 to be US$2 billion higher than they were a year ago. Its CEO Ed Bastian warned travellers that “with higher fuel prices, you;re going to expect to see ticket prices go up as well.”

And Delta is not the only airline heading in that direction. Other carriers are likely to follow suit if they have not already done so.

On the other side of the Pacific, Air New Zealand (Air NZ) and Jetstar have raised domestic fares by five per cent, and Air NZ is reviewing fares for international routes. According to Air NZ chief executive Christopher Luxon, every dollar increase for a barrel of fuel “adds $10 million of costs to Air New Zealand’s bottom line.”

Mr Christopher Luxon, Photo courtesy Air New Zealand

International Air Transport Association (IATA) chief executive officer Alexandre de Juniac warned that against this background, “next year will be less positive.”

Mr Luxon of Air NZ painted this picture of the likely scenario: ”The normal cycle in aviation is that fuel goes up, prices rise, demand may fall and capacity gets reduced.”

So what are airlines doing about it, apart from raising fares because that alone has its limitations in view of the competition and the impact it may have on the consumer’s propensity to travel?

Delta has already made known its intention to withdraw flights serving the less popular destinations. So too will other carriers after the summer peak.

Beyond that, many airlines are ramping up hedging. Major European airlines including budget carriers Ryanair and EasyJet, for example, are increasing the ratio of hedged fuel to as high as 90 per cent of needs. Low cost carriers especially, because of their limited ability to hedge, were badly hit the last times when fuel prices careened upwards. But hedging is not a completely safe bet. Equally so, many airlines also reported significant losses when fuel prices came down.

The good news is that with more fuel-efficient aircraft in operation, the impact of the increased fuel costs may not be as hard on the airlines. Higher fares are as good as being ready to be rolled out, but the question is how far can the airlines go without losing customers, particularly at a time when the price of the fare is likely to matter more than allegiance?

Again, to quote Mr Luxon, ”All airlines, whether you’re in Australia or around the world are working hard to see how they can take prices up and ultimately how much of that cost increase can you recover through pricing.”

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2018 Skytrax airline awards: Largely the same winners

Top airlines remain largely the same ones as last year’s.

Yet again we note how the top ten airlines remained largely the same ones as last year’s. If you’re good, you’re good, so it seems, and consistency won the day.

Singapore Airlines (SIA) which was second last year switched places with last year’s winner Qatar Airways. All Nippon Airways (ANA) and Emirates Airlines held steady in 3rd and 4th position. Cathay Pacific moved down one rung to 6th,, exchanging places with EVA Air. Lufthansa held its 7th position. Garuda Indonesian followed Hainan Airlines up one notch to 8th and 9th position respectively. The only new entrant to the list was Thai Airways International, which actually only moved up one rung from 11th last year, edging out Etihad Airways as it fell from 8th to 15th position.

So much for the excitement as the winning airlines, going by the result of the survey, continued to please their customers who found no reason to think otherwise of them.

Unlike some high-brow surveys whose results lean heavily on the premium class, Skytrax does readings across all classes.

Best for First Class was SIA followed by Etihad and Air France. This used to be the realm of Asian and Middle-East carriers, and let it not be a surprise to see two European carriers in the ranking. Lufthansa took 4th place.

Best for Business Class was Qatar followed by SIA and ANA. You would imagine that if an airline is good in First, it should not be too far off in Business. However, Air France was not placed in the top ten list and Lufthansa ranked 8th.

Best for Premium Economy was Air New Zealand followed by Qantas and SIA. It looks like the Pacific airlines are pretty good with this product. Lufthansa and Air France ranked 4th and 5th.. There was an absence of Middle-east carriers because they didn’t believe in such a class. Qatar chief CEO Akbar Al Baker had said: “We won’t roll out premium economy… I don’t think there is room for premium economy in our region, and of course in Qatar Airways. We give you a premium economy seat with an economy class price.” Sounds familiar if you recall the early days when SIA too expressed the same skepticism. However, Emirates has said its new Airbus A380 expected to be delivered in 2020 will feature premium economy.

Courtesy Star Alliance

Best for Economy Class was Thai Airways followed by SIA and Qatar. This category was dominated by Asian carriers with the exception of Lufthansa in 9th position.

Only these six airlines were placed in all three categories of First, Business and Economy (excluding premium Economy since not all airlines offer this sub-class): ANA, Cathay, Emirates, Lufthansa, Qatar and SIA. You can then rest comforted that whatever class you travel with these airlines, you will be treated without discrimination.

But is the Skytrax survey a good guide in choosing which carrier to fly with? Generally people can agree on makes a good airline. What matters when you travel with an airline? For the long haul, seat comfort is an important feature. Inflight entertainment, if you look for some distraction and are not otherwise doing something else or trying to catch up on shuteye. A good meal, if you are not one who will not eat airline food no matter what (unfortunately this is not featured in the Skytrax survey). Cabin cleanliness, of course, and that includes the condition of the washrooms. How often do you see the crew give it a clean-up and spraying some kind of deodorant to try and make it as pleasant as it possibly can be? Above all, the service provided by the cabin crew, to be treated in a friendly manner and with respect. Not forgetting service on the ground in the event that you may need assistance, as when your bag is damaged or has not arrived with you.

Perhaps the ranking for some of these more specific services may be of some help:

Best Economy seat (First and Business should be way better anyway): 1st Japan Airlines, 2nd SIA and 3rd Thai Airways.

Best cabin crew: 1st Garuda, 2nd SIA and 3rd ANA.

Best inflight entertainment: 1st Emirates, 2nd SIA and 3rd Qatar.

Cleanest cabin: 1st ANA, 2nd EVA and 3rd Asiana Airlines.

Best airport service: 1st EVA, 2nd ANA and 3rd Cathay.

But, of course, you can’t expect a single airline to be best in all categories, but you get a pretty good idea of where they all stand, perhaps with exceptions.

Qantas continues winning streak

It’s happy days again for airlines, more specifically carriers in Asia Pacific which is identified as a growth potential for the industry.

Just over a week ago, Singapore Airlines announced Q3 (Jan-Mar 2018) group profit of S$330 million (US$250 million), increasing by S$37 million or 12.6 per cent (see Singapore Airlines does better without Tigerair, Feb 15, 2018).

Courtesy Qantas

This is now followed by Australia’s Qantas reporting record half year profits (Jul-Dec 2017) of A$976 million (US$761 million), increasing by 14.6 per cent. This came in the face of higher fuel costs, a competitive domestic market and challenges in international capacity growth. The result beat the previous first half record achieved in 2016.

Impressively, Qantas Domestic and budget subsidiary Jetstar’s domestic flying operations combined posted their highest ever first half Underlying EBIT of A$652 million. Qantas controls nearly two-thirds of the Australian market. However, Qantas International, in the words of Qantas chief Alan Joyce, “held its own” with a six per cent decline in profit against a slight increase in revenue.

Mr Joyce remained upbeat about future earnings propsects – the kind of sentiment that is not often expressed by many an airline CEO these days. Surely the airline must be doing something right, and Mr Joyce would remind you that the Transfomration program he introduced in 2014 has certainly borne good fruit.

As Mr Joyce put it, “After several years of turning this business around, Qantas now has a momentum behind it.” He added: “Today’s result comes from investing in areas that provide margin growth and a network strategy that makes sure we have the right aircraft on the right route.”

After Qantas, Air New Zealand is expecting to also announce record profit, boosted by tourism growth.

Air New Zealand tops again

Courtesy Air New Zealand

AirlineRatings.com has named Air New Zealand as the world’s best airline for 2018. Other airlines that make the top ten in descending order are Qantas, Singapore Airlines (SIA), Virgin Australia, Virgin Atlantic, Etihad Airways, All Nippon Airways (ANA), Korean Air, Cathay Pacific and Japan Airlines.

According to the editorial team, airlines must achieve a seven-star safety rating (developed in consultation with the International Civil Aviation Organization) and demonstrate leadership in innovation for passenger comfort to be named in the top ten.

The evaluation team also looks at customer feedback on sites that include CN Traveller.com which perhaps explain little surprise in both AirlineRatings and Conde Nast Travel naming Air New Zealand as their favourite. (See What defines a best airline? Oct 19, 2017) Four airlines, namely SIA, Virgin Australia, Virgin Atlantic and Cathay Pacific are ranked in the top ten of both lists. These look like consistently global favourites.

Notable absences from the AirlineRatings list are Middle east carriers Qatar Airways and Emirates Airlines. While these airlines scored for service in other surveys, they may have lost the lead in product innovation for which most of the airlines ranked by AirlineRatings are commended. Virgin Australia’s new business class is said to be “turning heads” and Etihad is said to provide a “magnificent product throughout the cabins.” Looking ahead, Air New Zealand will feel the pressure from Qantas and SIA for the top spot. (See Singapore Airlines steps up to reclaim past glory, Nov 3, 2017) In the same survey, Qantas is selected for best lounges and best catering services, and SIA for best first class and best cabin crew.

For those who think best airline surveys are often skewed by the halo effect of service provided in the upper classes, AirlineRatings has named Korean Air as best economy airline.

What defines a best airline?

What defines a best airline, considering the different surveys that rank them? Conde Nast Travel has just released its readers’ choice of the best in 2017, and it is no surprise the list is made up of Asian, Middle East, European and SW Pacific carriers.

Courtesy Air New Zealand

Of course, it depends on the readership, but recognizing that, it also points to what really makes these airlines stand out. It is clear that the premium class service weighs heavily – the seat comfort and the fine food.

Etihad Airways (ranked #16) offers “the future of first-class comfort: a three-room “residence” with a bedroom, private bath with shower, and lounge.” Emirates (#4) offers “posh perks for premium fliers – cocktail lounges, in-flight showers… part of the reason it scores so high among travellers.” And the suites on Singapore Airlines (#3) offer “a pair of fully flat recliners that can be combined into a double bed.”

Mention is made of the premium economy class in almost all the ranked airlines” KLM (#20), Lufthansa (#19), Japan Airlines (#17), All Nippon Airways (#13), Qantas (#12), Cathay Pacific (#10), Virgin Atlantic (#7), Virgin Australia (#6), Singapore Airlines (#3) and Air New Zealand (#1).

So it may appear to be the voice of the premium travellers that is being heard. Maybe coach travellers aren’t too concerned about the ranking, more driven by price and less frilly factors, although to be fair, the Conde Nast report did mention of at least one airline, i.e. Etihad Airways (#16), not ignoring “those sitting in the back.” While many travellers may resign to the belief that the economy class is about the same across the industry, it is reasonable to assume that an airline that strives to please its customers in the front cabins will most probably carry that culture or at least part of it to the rear.

Although you may draw consensus across many of the surveys, it is best best to treat each one of them in isolation. It is more meaningful to try and draw intra conclusions within the findings of the particular survey.

You will note in the Conde Nast findings, there is an absence of American (including Canadian) carriers, never mind that of African and South American carriers.

Asiana Airlines (#8) is ranked ahead of Korean Air (#11).

All Nippon Airways (#13) is ranked ahead of Japan Airlines (#17). V

Virgin Australia (#6) is ranked ahead of Qantas (#12).

The order of the “Big 3” Gulf carriers is as follows: Qatar Airways (#2), Emirates (#4) and Etihad Airways (#16).

Of European carriers, there is the conspicuous absence of the big names of British Airways (compare Virgin Atlantic #7) and Air France, and the pleasant surprise of Aegean Airlines (#9) while SWISS seems to be regaining its erstwhile status years ago as being the industry standard.

The best belongs to Air New Zealand as the quiet achiever.

Ultimately, the results also depend on the group of respondents whose experiences may be limited to certain airlines.

Other airlines ranked in the top 20 of the Conde Nast survey: Finnair (#14), Turkish Airlines (#15), EVA Air (#18).

Star power in British Airways’ new safety video

Ever since Air New Zealand (Air NZ) made the bold move to ditch the traditional safety video format for something more entertaining, some airlines have followed suit to be different. It started with the objective to arrest the attention of passengers who would otherwise be disinterested. It has certainly become a talking point that raises the profile of the airline – for as long as the script remains topical and appealing.

The pertinent question is at what point the new video ceases to be a safety demo and becomes pure entertainment with a life of its own. That depends on how well the safety message still comes through taken out of the normal environment of the aircraft. And when the production tries to do more than just educate and entertain but advertise or sell a third product, things can get pretty muddled up as in the case of a joint promotion by Qantas and Australian Tourism.

Courtesy British Airways

What appeals to the passengers? A good story or a favorite movie recall such as Air NZ’s adoption of the Lord of the Rings’ Middle Earth. Or, popular personalities, particularly movie idols, as British Airways (BA) has done with a new star-powered video to be launched in September. It features Chiwetel Ejiofor, Gordon Ramsay, Thandie Newton, Ian McKellen, Jim Broadbent and Gillian Anderson among others, not forgetting, of course, Rowan Atkinson aka Mr Bean! It is clearly British humor, and to the production’s credit, executed without shadowing the safety message.

BA chairman and CEO Alex Cruz said: “It’s extremely important to us that customers engage with our safety video, and involving some of the nation’s most well-know personalities has given us the chance to create something fun that we hope people will watch from start to finish – and remember.”

However, the old format, dull as it is, never gets out of date whereas the new format needs to keep up with the times to sustain the excitement. While many would just do something else instead of watching the old video, equally many others may sigh “not again” if the newly formatted version becomes an over-shown re-run. Passengers will therefore expect seasonal changes. Well, at least that’s something to look forward to.

New Qantas safety video: Attraction or distraction?

Courtesy Qantas

Courtesy Qantas

Ever since Air New Zealand made waves breaking away from the conventional in-flight safety video, featuring among other things Middle Earth, a number of other airlines have taken up the challenge to “engage” the travellers, many of them who may find the old style too boring to deserve attention.

The new Qantas video features Australian destinations across every state and territory, ranging from the Victorian ski fields to sand surfing at Queensland’s Moreton Island, thus killing two birds with one stone promoting travel to these destinations at the same time. Qantas chief executive Alan Joyce admits: “This video doubles as a perfect tourism ad.”

While the main goal (as it should be) was to make the safety video “engaging as well as informative,” there are questions about the effectiveness of getting across the primary message as to what to do to keep safe and how to react in the case of an emergency. There is the important question of context. The order of priority in presentation is not necessary received in the same order. And, let’s face it, people get tired of most re-runs soon enough.