Big Mess at Ryanair

Courtesy Getty Images

The world’s biggest budget airline has found itself floundering in a big mess. An apaprent mistake in leave schedulign of pilots as it claimed has led the airline to cancel 2,100 flights over six weeks until November – 40 to 50 flights a day. That means inconveniencing some some 300,000 customers who would receive or had already received emails informing them of the cancellations.

Ryanair said it would arrange alternative flights or refund the fares. Under the European Passenger Rights legislation, passengers are entitled to compensation for flight cancellations. Ryanair estimates it will cost the carrier 20m euros (US$24m).

The unpredented slew of cancellations may also subject Ryanair to penalties imposed by the authorities. Italy’s competition regulator – Italian Competition and Market Authority – has started a probe into the matter, on whether the cancellations could have been prevented. It is hard to believe that Ryanair had nto anticipated the problem and, if found guilty, could be fined as much as 5m euros.

Ryanair chose to cancel flights first at its busiest airports so that it would be eassier to arrange alternative flights. But, of course, in the mess of events, this has a knock-on effect.

Ryanair chief Michael O’Leary denied the airline was experieicning a shortage of pilots, even as many as 140 of them have left to join new rival Norwegian Air Shuttle. Mr O’Leary insisted it was because the airline had “messed up” the rosters which left it without enough pilots to operate all the scheduled flights.

One thing for sure, Ryanair will certainly feel the heat of the competition brought on by Norwegian and other carriers such as EasyJet, if advanced bookings for October at 70 per cent comapred to September at 90 per cent are any indications.

Will this mess cause Ryanair any further loss of customers in the future? The airline has a dotted history of going from zero customer service to attempting improving that aspect in the face of rising competition. Much depends on how it handles the current crisis. In a price sensitive market, people’s memories tend to be short while most people are actually more forgiving than expected under the circumstances. The real threat for Ryanair remains the competition particularly if the rivals are seen to be more reliable.

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EasyJet to shake up market

Courtesy EasyJet

EasyJet “will shake up the market,” said the low-cost carrier’s chief commercial officer Peter Duffy. The airline operating out of London Gatwick has entered into an arrangement with Norwegian Air Shuttle and WestJet to allow booking of connecting flights to Singapore and destinations in North America that include New York, Los Angeles, Orlando and Toronto on its website.

This is another indication of how LCCs are no longer content with just the so-called niche market as they enter into the arena of the big boys. Such connections are usually forged among legacy airlines competing with each other, an advantage compared to stand-alone LCCs confined to point-to-point traffic. So EasyJet’s initiative – said to be the first global airline connections service by a European low fares carrier – is set to change the rules of the game.

Already Norwegian, encouraged by the prospect of an increased number of passengers through the partnership that will help it expand its wings, is talking about the possibility of linking up with Ryanair. EasyJet also said the tripartite arrangement will expand to include more airlines.

The agreement is not completely an LCC club as it includes WestJet, Canada’s second largest airline after Air Canada. This is breaking new ground, challenging the advantage enjoyed by legacy airlines which are supported by subsidiary or joint-venture LCCs, among them Lufthansa/Eurowings, British Airways/Level/Vueling, Qantas/JetStar, and Singapore Airlines/Scoot.

It is interesting how the modus operandi of the LCC keeps evolving, and consumers stand to benefit from the increased competition. For now, EasyJet customers connecting partner flights will have to collect their bags in transit, to be handled via the Gatwick Connects desk in the baggage reclaim area. No reason why this will not improve in time.

Air France to “boost” performance with new low-cost carrier

Legacy airlines in Europe have long been feeling the pinch from low-cost carriers such as Ryanair and Easyjet. Now it looks like Norwegian Air Shuttle and WOW Air are pushing them to look farther before they lose more ground.
Lufthansa already offers a low-cost trans-Atlantic option from Europe to Las Vegas, Orlando, Miami and Seattle in the United States.

The International Airlines Group which owns British Airways, Iberia, Aer Lingusm and Vueling has just added another low-cost carrier – Level – to its stable. Level, based in Barcelona, will fly to Los Angeles and Oakland in California USA, Punta Cana in the Dominican Republic, and Buenos Aires in Argentina. Fares start at the familiar €99 reminiscent of the Norwegian and WOW Air’s promotions.

Courtesy Air France

Following in their footsteps is Air France, which announces the formation of a new subsidiary low-cost airline – Boost as its working name – planned to commence operations in winter. The airline will fly from the main hubs of the Air France/KLM group to destinations in Italy, Spain and Turkey initially, and then farther to destinations in Asia. Norwegian is already flying to Bangkok and will in October connect London with Singapore.

But Boost will be taking on full-service airlines as well, such as the Middle East carriers of Emirates Airlines, Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways which are already ruffling the feathers of the regional big birds of Singapore Airlines and Cathay Pacific.

The developments point to a gradual convergence of the low-cost and full-service product perceived value wise. It’s the antithetical success of low-cost carriers pushing to bridge the gulf and the failure of legacy airlines not being able to maintain if not increase the differentiation. It looks like the European tug-of-war is pulling the legacy airlines towards the centre line.

AirAsia to launch Honolulu services: Revisiting the sustainability of budget long haul

Courtesy AirAsia

Courtesy AirAsia

Malaysian carrier AirAsia will be introducing four weekly services from Kuala Lumpur to Honolulu in June, becoming the first budget airline approved for operations between the United States and Asia. Flight time is anything from 16 to 18 hours.

This is yet another attempt by founder Tony Fernandes to launch a budget long haul, despite the failure to sustain earlier operations under the AirAsia X banner to London in 2009 and Paris in 2011, which were suspended in 2012. However, Mr Fernandes said operations to London will resume in 2018 when the airline receives its new more economical long-range Airbus A330-900neo jets.

Although sceptics continue to doubt the viability of budget long hauls and there have been many who tried and failed, the entrepreneurial spirit to push the boundary is still very much alive. The current slate includes Norwegian Air Shuttle which commenced services from Oslo to New York and to Bangkok in 2013, and Lufthansa’s Eurowings which and operates nonstop from Cologne and Bonn to US destinations such as Seattle, Orlando, Miami and Las Vegas. Budget doyen Ryanair is also looking at crossing the Atlantic. Singapore Airlines’ budget offshoot Scoot has announced plans to connect Singapore and Athens in June.

A number of factors have contributed to the trend.Bu dget carriers are beginning to eye distant destinations dominated by legacy airlines as they expand, and this is now made possible by technologically advanced and more fuel efficient aircraft. The budget model is changing, and the line between budget and full-service carriers is increasingly blurring as the former upgrades customer service and facilities and the latter adopting some of the practices such as product unbundling and charging for add-ons. Legacy airlines no longer view budget carriers as operating in their own niche markets but a real threat. (See Ultra-long flights: The competition heats up, Feb 7, 2017)

Whether Mr Fernandes’ Honolulu venture is sustainable or not in the long run, he has earned his feather. As a stand-alone, it will be a challenge for AirAsia, which will have to tap feeds from its regional connections – as will Scoot when it commences services to Athens. It will be a test, considering the nature of the leisure traffic and the competition posed by several airlines in the region that are already plying the route direct form their home bases or in code-share arrangements.

No more free meals for BA short haul

BA4 courtesy BA.jpg

Courtesy British Airways

British Airways (BA) will stop catering complimentary meals on domestic and short-haul flights. Passengers may avail themselves of food and drink supplied by supermarket chain Marks & Spencer at a cost, and we all know that such meals don’t come cheap.

BA said the decision was made to cut costs, and this naturally was not well received by its customers. It is coming at a time when BA is making record profits compared to its regional competitors, picking up a trend set by North American carriers although ironically some of them such as Delta Air Lines are considering re-introducing meals as the competition intensifies.

The question is: Will BA lower its airfare as a consequence? Increasingly airlines are adopting the no-frill model to boost their coffers with ancillary revenue which has been rising significantly in recent years. But that is at the risk of losing the differentiation that makes full-service airlines a conscious choice of travellers who are prepared to foot more for it. It is good news otherwise for low-cost operators such as Ryanair, Norwegian Air Shuttle and Wow Air.

BA is testing the ground. Its success will depend on how strong it is as a trendsetter, and its understanding of the compliance of the travelling public, however prone they are to complaining. Right now, BA has muscled itself into an extensive network of airlines under the International Airlines Group (IAG) that also owns Iberia, Vueling and Aer Lingus. Time will tell.

Enter the ultra-budget airline

Courtesy NewLeaf

Courtesy NewLeaf

LESS than a month after Canada’s latest carrier Airlines revealed plans to offer ultra-low fares operating from its base in Winnipeg to six cities within the country, namely Abbotsford, Halifax, Hamilton, Kelowna, Regina, and Saskatoon, it announced it was “temporarily postponing service” and would refund all transactions already made. The first service was to be launched in February.

Newleaf’s fate now rests in the hands of the Canadian Transportation Agency (CTA) which is reviewing the carrier’s aviation licence. Apparently Newleaf was selling seats through a charter arrangement with Kelowna-based Flair Airlines Ltd which held the CTA operating licence. The question is whether the indirect Newleaf should itself be holding a licence directly.

Newleaf CEO Jim Young’s reaction was one of optimism. He said: “We welcome a regulatory system in which businesses like ours can thrive in Canada as they do in other countries.”

That aside, the ultra-budget airline that is sometimes referred to as a discount airline is not an entirely new phenomenon. In his somewhat premature announcement of the launch of the airline, Young said: “Lower landing fees mean we have savings we can pass on to you.” The key word is “affordability”. According to him, “Ultra low-cost carriers are some of the most financially successful airlines in the world today.”

Young may be referring to operators such as Iceland’s WOW Air and the longer haul Norwegian Air Shuttle. WOW Air, for example, is offering US$99 fares connecting Boston and San Francisco in the US with the Icelandic capital Reykjavik. It is next looking at connecting with Montreal and Toronto in Canada.

While you might remind Young of how as many airlines so-called budget too have come and gone, Newleaf is already expressing interest to expand its operations to other destinations within Canada and in the United States.

Young, who was at one time CEO of Frontier Airlines, explained: “By unbundling the entire service you get to choose what you want.” That basically is the budget model, and one that is further trimmed down on costs. As an example, he cited how NewLeaf would be able to save money in part because it does not offer its seats on any third-party travel websites, which charge airlines a fee to post and make sales there. Considering the nature of its operations, that makes economic sense. After all, Young did not see Canada’s two other major carriers – Air Canada and Westjet – as Newleaf’s competitors. He said: “If I had a competitor, it would be the airlines that Canadians are driving across the border for.” He was referring to Canada’s loss of market share to US airlines such as Allegiant Air operating out of airports south of the border, close enough for Canadians to drive across to take advantage of the lower fares.

Young added: “We’re looking to create a new market and stimulate people who aren’t flying today. What I’m going after are people that will make the three-and-a-half hour drive in the middle of winter to go to Grand Forks because they’ve got to get to some place warm or can’t afford to fly from here.”

That argument about developing new market has been the slogan of many a budget upstart, and which has contributed to the success of some of them to go where the full service airlines would not go. Newleaf is therefore targeting a limited but niche leisure market on the back of a strategy that focuses on second-tier airports. It can count on that as a strength to drive its growth, particularly at a time when it could take advantage of the current low fuel costs. Too many no-frill operators in the past had been hit badly by soaring oil prices. The challenge for Newleaf will come when other upstarts similarly motivated jump into the same arena, or when one of the legacy airlines decide that the market has grown big enough for them to join the competition most probably through a subsidiary offshoot such as Rouge, the budget arm of Air Canada.

Legacy airlines across the world have become increasingly wary of the growth of the budget carriers, particularly after the 2008 global economic crisis when air travel trended downwards to cheaper fares. Budget carriers are now competing in the same market, not only for seats in the traditional economy class but also for travellers who want some perks but at lower fares as they introduce their version of business class. North American domestic operations by the major airlines are already adopting the budget model to charge for meals and baggage among a slew of chargeable.

The temptation of growing bigger than intended is always present. This unbridled ambition has led to the downfall of many operators in aviation history, perhaps the reason why the doyen of the budget model Ryanair remains undecided whether it should launch long haul services across the Atlantic, and why some discount carriers such as Allegiant have stayed small. Will Newleaf, when granted the licence to operate, given its ambition to expand far and wide, go down this same road?

Perhaps not, as it would appear that the current budget model exemplified by carriers such as Ryanair and easyJet is not trim enough, and if lower cost will stimulate demand, there is room for Newleaf to grow. Yet one begins to wonder how much lower you can go.

This article was first published in Aspire Aviation.

Scoot to go where others failed

Courtesy AFP

Courtesy AFP

IT will happen, as it must. So it seems, but a matter of time. Scoot, the medium to long-haul low-cost subsidiary of Singapore Airlines (SIA) has made known its intention to extend its network to possibly include a destination as far away as London from Singapore. After all, London is a prime destination for SIA, and one that has helped it flourish in its early days, so it should be an encouraging start for Scoot to test the budget long-haul.

Scoot chief executive Campbell Wilson said: “The West is definitely on our cards.” Lest, you forget by definition it is a medium to long haul low-cost operator and think its fortune is confined to regional flights. It is eyeing the Middle East up to London.

Never mind the failure of others that tried, most memorably Hong Kong’s Oasis Airlines that inaugurated its route from Hong Kong to London in October 2006. The budget airline added Vancouver in June 2007, and won several awards that year including “World’s Leading New Airlines: and “Asia’s Leading Budget Airline” at the Annual world Travel Awards. But barely into its third year, it folded its wings in April 2008.

Another low-cost carrier that faced a similar fate was Canada’s Harmony Airways that ventured beyond North America from Vancouver to Manchester (UK) and planned to expand into Asia, eyeing in particular the China market. That was not to be, when the airline collapsed in 2007, three years after it repositioned itself for the long-haul.

More recent and closer to home is AirAsia’s subsidiary AirAsia X in yet another attempt to keep budget pioneer Freddie Laker’s dream alive. In fact, its first aircraft was named “Semangat Sir Freddie” (“Spirit of Sir Freddie”). The budget carrier operated from Kuala Lumpur to two European destinations – London and Paris, connecting traffic from other destinations such as Melbourne – which it has since suspended, together with others, but it continues to operate some shorter hauls. Parent airline AirAsia is unlikely to admit to its offshoot’s failure as being final as its chief Tony Fernandes had said it planned to return some day.

So is Scoot going where angels fear to tread or where the brave dare not go to prove it is not an impossible dream after all?

On a more optimistic note, it is certainly a welcome breath of the erstwhile spirit and vigor that characterised the success of SIA when as a new airline it quickly became the world’s most envied operator that could do things that others were reluctant or afraid to consider. Indeed, it is difficult to think of Scoot without parent SIA – a quiet overshadowing that sibling SilkAir has for years tried and still does to dispel, and into which increasingly 55-per-cent owned Tigerair is moving. While pedigree connections cannot guarantee success, experiential wisdom is not something to be scoffed at. The issue is also one of relevance. SIA is very much a premium carrier that has been pushed into venturing into the lower end by increased competition from low-cost carriers and by peer rivals that have sprouted budget subsidiaries, a good example being Qantas and its budget subsidiary Jetstar.

There are questions: Is the SIA stable getting a little crowded with intra competition even as Scoot and Tigerair now claim they are performing better with cooperation? Scoot and Tigerair will soon be combining their reservations systems. Can SIA define the market such that they do not overlap and that it merely shifts the business from one pocket to the other? The move seems to be towards more commonality. SIA’s Krisflyer perks are now open to customers of subsidiary carriers.

And the big question: Is it Scoot in its own right flying to London or is the operation under the SIA banner, the way it is so difficult to tell AirAsia X from parent AirAsia? But then, AirAsia is itself a budget carrier. Nevertheless, the bet is likely to favour the probability of SIA (driving Scoot) succeeding if anyone should finally succeed in the budget long-haul.

This is not forgetting that SIA itself has not had lemons in its basket – its failed stake in Air New Zealand, its lacklustre investment in Virgin Atlantic, and the premature termination of its all-business class flights. While its slow entry (or re-entry if you consider the short-lived non-stop Los Angeles and New York runs) into the premium economy (PEY) market may have been the result of an over-cautious retreat, its performance thus far may have also emboldened it to take a more adventurous approach. Additionally, the PEY is doing well on the Vistara joint-venture in India, even as Cathay Pacific, a forerunner of the new PEY, has decided to take it off Indian routes.

Besides, the climate for expansion is encouraging. Mr Wilson said: “We are on an upward slope towards profitability. We see yield maturity building over time and we are observing that across our routes.” The SIA Group has just announced Q1 (Apr-Jun) profit of S$111 million (US$81 million), an increase of S$72 million. Parent SIA made a profit of S$108 million compared to S$45 a year ago. Tigerair broke even. And Scoot recorded an operating loss of S$20 million, an improvement of S$5 million over last year. Passenger load factor for Scoot increased 2.9 percentage points to 81.4% on the back of increased passenger carriage by 11.0%, far exceeding the 6.9% capacity injection. And, of course, the industry is blessed with the continuing low costs of jet fuel.

What about the competition? Without any indication of AirAsia X’s resumption of the long haul services, Scoot has a pretty much open field although Norwegian Air Shuttle operates from Oslo and Stockholm to Bangkok. In fact, with airlines such as Garuda Indonesia offering low fares to London in the attempt to retain direct traffic between Indonesia and the UK, Scoot may become the alternative SIA in the competition. Mr Wilson said: “We might be a bit more niche when it comes to long-haul operations.” Generally, the budget market is driven by the dollar, and the niche factor, whatever Mr Wilson meant by it, may make the difference. But note how many a budget operator that came and went had always maintained that they were not like the others, and that too may be predicated on the expectations of long-haul travellers.

Nevertheless, it is invigorating news although Mr Wilson said the plan “is not immediate but it is not something we are closed to.” It has been almost 50 years since Sir Freddie founded Laker Airways in 1966, and it is still a field where few dare venture. We wish Scoot good luck when it finally happens, and hope it succeeds.

This article was first published in Aspire Aviation.