Omicron sets the airline industry back

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Here we go again as countries around the world re-introduce new restrictions to curb the spread of Omicron which is believed to be more infectious though milder than other coronavirus variants. Airlines which are slowly recovering from two years of dismal performances are back to where they were.

This week sees many people facing travel disruptions as airlines cancel and cut back their flights. According to FlightAware, nearly 2,650 flights were cancelled globally on Christmas Day. The United States alone accounted for 937 flights, up from 690 on Christmas Eve.

United Airlines blamed it on “the nationwide spike in Omicron cases (which) has had a direct impact on our flight crews and the people who run our operation.” Delta too referred to the “impact of the omicron variant” as a contributory factor.

The shortage of crew has also led Cathay Pacific to cancelling flights to Australia, Europe and North America. The airline’s “closed-loop” roster which requires crews to stay in designated in hotels while in Hong Kong during the three weeks followed by a two-week quarantine at the end of the cycle has proved to be unpopular resulting in a low take-up rate since it is voluntary. (See Cathay takes a tough COVID line, Dec 1, 2021) Consequently Cathay is expecting to end the month of December flying no more than 12 per cent of the pre-COVID schedule.

Rival Singapore Airlines which has benefited from Singapore’s Vaccinated Travel Lane (VTL) scheme will suspend sale of VTL flights from Dec 23 to Jan 20 as Singapore introduces new restrictions to check the spread of Omicron. According to a Ministry of Health report on Dec 23, more than 50 of 65 confirmed imported Omicron infections arrived in Singapore via the VTL. (See Singapore’s Vaccinated Travel Lane: What it means for travellers, Dec 1, 2021)

Elsewhere in Asia, Thailand is reinstating mandatory quarantine for visitors, ranging from seven to ten days. The “sandbox” programme which allows visitors free movement outside of their accommodation at a specific location has also been suspended for all venues except the popular resort island of Phuket. This comes just after a month of its reopening to foreigners in November.

Downunder in Australia, thousands of travellers were affected by the cancellation of more than a hundred domestic flights from Sydney and Melbourne to other cities. Neighbouring New Zealand is deferring re-opening of its borders to the end of February. Consequently, Air New Zealand said it would cancel 120 services until then.

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Many countries in Europe too have re-imposed restrictions. Ryanair for one sees a reverse in fortune as it expects its annual loss ending March to double to as high as 450 million euros in the wake of Omicron sweeping across the region. It has reduced its passenger forecast for January from 10 million to at most seven million, which means it is unlikely to reach its previous optimistic target of more than 100 million for the full year, placing the blame on the ban on British arrivals into France and Germany, and the suspension of all EU flights to and from Morocco.

So the unending saga of the coronavirus continues, setting back the much anticipated recovery after two years since the first known case of infection was detected. Where once there was hope that increased vaccination of the world’s population would pave the way to recovery of the industry, now it is not as certain. But hope springs eternal in the administration of a third dose, and Israel is already considering a fourth dose while the rest of the world struggles to catch up. Who knows what more variants are waiting to strike as the virus continues to mutate, although theoretically over tome subsequent mutations are likely to get weaker over.

Since air travel connects people and places, it is how the virus will spread easily, particularly as warned by the World Health Organization (WHO) of uneven vaccination levels globally. Some scientists predict it will be another two years before the virus becomes less of a concern. So it is looking beyond 2022, at least for now!

News Update: WHO warns Asia-Pacific nations of Omicron threat

While more nations in the Asia-Pacific region have begun closing their borders to travel from infected and other African countries, the World Health Organization (WHO) is urging them to brace for the spread of he Omicron variant. (See News Update: More Asian countries bar travel from Africa, November 30, 2021)

Australia for one changed its plan to allow certain groups of travellers into the country from December 1 after several cases of infection have been found. These include skilled migrants, backpackers and international students, even if they were fully vaccinated.

https://www.todayonline.com/world/who-tells-asia-pacific-brace-omicron-variant-spreads

News Update: More Asian countries bar travel from Africa

Two passengers on a recent Singapore Airlines flight from Johannesburg, transittimg in Singapore before continuing onward to Sydney, tested positive for Omicron. Seven other passengers on the same flight disembarked in Singapore and are presently being quarantined for ten days at a dedicated facility, and contact tracing has been initiated to track airport staff who might have come into contact with the infected passengers.

Courtesy Reuters

Singapore had earlier already barred non-residents from seven African nations – Botswana, Eswatini, Leosotho, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa and Zimbabwe – from entering the country.

The first known Omicron case in Asia was detected in Hong Kong, which has since then detected a second case, despite a zero-COVID policy whose travel restrictions are among the world’s most stringent.

Now Japan has confirmed its first case of Omicron in a visitor arriving from Namibia.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has said Omicron may spread more quickly than other forms. This heightens the threat of exposure and more Asian countries – among them Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Malaysia – are taking steps to bar travel from affected African nations.

Indonesia and Thailand have added Malawi to the list.

Hong Kong has extended the ban to Angola, Ethiopia, Nigeria and Zambia.

Japan is going further to close its borders to all foreigners, just like Israel.

Where once there was optimism about much of the world opening up, it looks like Omicron is pushing it back into retreat. This is not good news for the airlines.

Qantas may require vaccine passport for travel even if it had to go it alone

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Australian national carrier Qantas is taking the lead to propose a vaccine passport for international travellers. The airline’s chief executive Alan Joyce is suggesting that even if governments do not insist on the vaccine as “a condition of entry”, the airline would enforce its own policy. He believed the majority of Qantas customers support the proposal.

Joyce said: “We have a duty of care to our passengers and to our crew, to say that everybody in that aircraft needs to be safe.”

Until the global industry accepts a common policy with the support of the relevant authorities, this is likely to result in confusion and complications in international travel. The World Health Organisation’s director of digital health and innovation, Bernardo Mariano, said: “We don’t approve the fact that a vaccination passport should be a condition for travel.”

A major problem is the different roll-out rate of the vaccines across the world.

In Europe, there are plans for introducing a “Green Digital Certificate” before the summer. The certificate will show the status of the bearer if they had been vaccinated, but the authorities have so far not issued a blanket policy on its implementation and enforcement. Already there are protests that the policy is discriminatory.

It looks like the policy may be implemented for target groups and activities. For example, Cyprus will allow Britons who have had two jabs to visit from May 1 without having to quarantine, and Greece will admit “green” certified travellers from Israel.

Meantime the International Air Transport Association (IATA) is expecting to introduce soon a digital Covid Travel Pass which will attest to a traveller’s vaccination status if required for entry into a country. A number of Asia Pacific and Gulf carriers such as Singapore Airlines, Air New Zealand,m Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways are involved in the trials. IATA said that the app will address any concern of fraud.

Joyce is confident that other airlines may follow its policy. But it remains open as to when if that happens. So long as the different roll-out rate of the vaccines across the world continues to be a problem, and for so long as vaccination is voluntary, governments are likely to take a more measured approach to focus on testing and tracing. It may be a matter of necessity the way travellers view inoculation for yellow fever when travelling to certain countries that require it.